Tag: Joel Shakur
-
Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Shock: What It Means for Inflation, the Fed, and Markets in 2026
President Trump has raised the global tariff rate to 15% using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This breakdown examines the temporary 150-day tariff window, potential legal challenges, trade exemptions, supply chain leverage, and the broader macroeconomic impact. We also explore how a reduced effective tariff rate may influence inflation expectations, corporate margins,… Read more
-
Why Did The Narrative Flip in Markets?
Markets are worried about recession — but the data says the economy is still resilient. So why did sentiment suddenly flip? Read more
-
The Fed holds rates steady and are comfortable waiting (BULLISH ECONOMY)
The Federal Reserve held rates steady, signaling growing confidence in economic resilience as inflation continues to cool and the labor market stabilizes. With policy near neutral and tariff-driven price pressures fading, the Fed is choosing patience. Read more
-
Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs as Trade Deals Stall — What It Means for the Economy
As the Supreme Court ruling looms, Trump appears to be acting with urgency by escalating tariff threats while trade deals remain unresolved. While tariffs can be raised, lowered, or reversed, the real leverage may lie elsewhere: forcing foreign partners to commit billions in U.S. investments that are far harder to unwind. This post explores whether… Read more
-
PMI & Consumer Sentiment
January 2026 data from S&P Global’s Flash PMI and the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers shows an economy still expanding, but facing lingering tariff-driven cost pressures. Services growth has slowed, manufacturing costs remain elevated, and labor demand is flat amid uncertainty. At the same time, consumer sentiment is improving and inflation expectations are stabilizing.… Read more
-
GDP Strong, Claims Low, Inflation Sticky: A Snapshot of the U.S. Economy
Todays data Initial Jobless claims week of January 17th Last Read: 199kForecast: 208k – Actually came in at 200k. (This is lower than expected & also a historically low number).– The 4-week moving average was 201.5k (the lowest level since Jan 13, 2021.– Insured Unemployment is still trending down coming in at 1.849mil Overall the Read more
-
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF Econ outlook: Growth is uneven: the U.S. remains stronger than others. U.S. GDP Q3 2025 was 4.3% The strength came from 1. Tech & Ai investment 2. Rebound from the govt shutdown. Projections for the U.S. gdp growth for 2026 @ 2.4% (revised up .3%) and 2027 @ 2%. ****Scott Bessent @ the Read more