The IMF Econ outlook:
Growth is uneven: the U.S. remains stronger than others. U.S. GDP Q3 2025 was 4.3%
The strength came from 1. Tech & Ai investment 2. Rebound from the govt shutdown.
Projections for the U.S. gdp growth for 2026 @ 2.4% (revised up .3%) and 2027 @ 2%.
****Scott Bessent @ the WEF annual meeting **** sees 4%-5% inflation-adjusted gross domestic product growth in 2026 🤯🤯🤯 that would mean 7 or 8% nominal growth. Lutnick previously said the U.S. can see 5%-6% gdp growth this year.
On the inflation side of things the U.S. is seeing it come down more slowly than other countries (mainly due to tariff effects on core inflation; check my last blog for ideas about tariffs into 2026). Surveys show high cost of living as a top concern in America.
The IMF sees the Fed continuing to slowly cut rates into 2026 and due to the tech & ai boom the U.S. neutral rate is higher ( r * )
The United States stands out as the strongest major economy, the center of global ai investment, and has so some of the highest policy uncertainty among other advanced economies.
Joel is thinking about “strong growth, stubborn inflation, lower tariffs & a higher neutral rate”. This continues to support my idea that 2026 is the year of the hawkish Fed